Gold to Shine Brighter This Dhanteras: Experts Predict Record Highs as Investors Rush to Safe Havens

Gold prices are on track to create history this festive season. Analysts expect the yellow metal to touch ₹1.3 lakh per 10 grams on Dhanteras 2025, driven by global economic uncertainty, steady inflation, and the weakening U.S. dollar. Experts further believe that if the current trends persist, gold may even approach ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams by 2026, setting a new benchmark for the world’s most trusted asset.

Gold Prices Soar 50% in 2025

The year 2025 has been exceptional for gold investors, with prices already surging by nearly 50% since January. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery climbed to ₹1,22,284 per 10 grams last week — their highest level yet.

According to Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President (Research) at Religare Broking Ltd, the rally has been fueled by global economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.

A weak U.S. dollar has also made gold cheaper for investors dealing in other currencies, further boosting global demand.

Central Banks Fuel the Rally

Adding strength to gold’s uptrend is the record-breaking buying spree by central banks worldwide. Many countries are diversifying their reserves by accumulating gold, pushing official purchases to multi-decade highs.

Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities, explains:

“Even at record-high prices, continued buying by central banks and ETFs, along with rate-cut expectations and declining confidence in fiat currencies, will keep gold prices elevated.”

(Note: Fiat currency refers to government-issued legal tender, such as the Indian rupee or the U.S. dollar.)

Festive Outlook: Where Will Gold Be This Dhanteras?

Despite strong optimism, most experts believe gold will likely trade between ₹1,20,000 and ₹1,30,000 per 10 grams during Dhanteras 2025.

Bharti forecasts the global spot price in the range of $4,150–$4,250 per ounce, while Mishra notes that persistent inflation concerns are encouraging investors to view gold as a reliable store of value.

However, unless a major geopolitical shock or currency crisis occurs, analysts say it’s unlikely gold will cross ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams this festive season. Short-term projections suggest gold could fluctuate between ₹1,26,000 and ₹1,28,000 per 10 grams.

Gold Could Hit ₹1.5 Lakh by 2026

Analysts foresee gold’s momentum continuing well into 2026, particularly if global interest rates decline and inflation remains steady.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, believes:

“If current macroeconomic trends persist, gold could potentially touch ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams by mid to late 2026.”

She attributes the continued rally to sustained central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical risks, and slowing global growth prompted by interest rate cuts from major economies.

In India, additional drivers like festive and wedding demand, a weaker rupee, and high import duties are expected to keep domestic gold prices elevated. Chainani also points out a structural shift toward gold-based investment instruments as a key contributor to long-term gains.

Gold ETFs See Massive Inflows

As equity markets and bond yields remain volatile, investors are increasingly turning to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a safer investment vehicle.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Indian gold ETFs witnessed net inflows of $902 million (₹7,500 crore) in September 2025, marking a 285% jump from August. Globally, gold ETFs attracted $17.3 billion in fresh investments during the same month.

Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) shows that gold ETF investments in September reached ₹8,363 crore, compared to ₹2,190 crore in August — a 282% rise. The assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in India have now crossed ₹90,000 crore, reflecting investors’ growing confidence in gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

The Bottom Line

Gold’s bullish run shows no signs of slowing. With central banks buying at record levels, inflation staying high, and the U.S. dollar weakening, the global and domestic outlook for gold remains decisively positive.

For Indian investors, Dhanteras 2025 could mark a golden opportunity — not just symbolically, but financially — as gold inches closer to historic highs.

If global trends continue, ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams by 2026 may not be a distant dream after all.