International crude oil prices continued their downward journey on Monday, November 9, falling below the $100-per-barrel mark. The decline comes after oil recorded its biggest weekly fall since April 2020, as investors increasingly hope that diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran could prevent further escalation of the conflict in West Asia.

The possibility of a peaceful resolution has eased concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies. However, geopolitical tensions remain high, and uncertainty surrounding the situation continues to influence market sentiment.

Brent and WTI Crude Prices Decline

Oil prices opened lower on Monday, extending the losses recorded during the previous week.

Brent crude futures fell 1.04% to $97.30 per barrel, after declining by more than $1 at one point during the trading session.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 58 cents, or 0.60%, to $90.29 per barrel.

The decline indicates that traders are becoming more optimistic about the possibility of negotiations reducing the risk of further military escalation.

Trump's Statement Raises Hopes of a Diplomatic Solution

One of the major factors influencing oil prices was a statement by US President Donald Trump.

During a phone interview with CNN, Trump indicated that he would be unlikely to authorise further attacks on Iran if negotiations to end the conflict made meaningful progress.

His comments strengthened expectations that the two countries could move towards a diplomatic agreement rather than continuing military confrontation.

Earlier, Trump had suggested that major US attacks on Iran could resume after the US midterm elections. However, the absence of any major military escalation and growing expectations of negotiations have provided some relief to financial markets.

Attack on Aramco Offices Keeps West Asia Tensions Alive

Despite hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, the security situation in West Asia remains uncertain.

On Sunday, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels reportedly attacked Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh. The incident also affected offices of Saudi Aramco, the country's state-owned oil company.

According to reports from the Saudi Press Agency, air defence systems intercepted a barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles. The Aramco offices sustained minor damage, while no casualties were reported.

The incident highlights the continuing risks to energy infrastructure and supply routes in the region.

Goldman Sachs Warns Crude Oil Could Reach $140 in 2027

While crude oil prices have recently declined, Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts because of concerns about possible supply disruptions.

The investment bank reportedly increased its December Brent crude forecast from $90 to $105 per barrel. Its forecast for US WTI crude was also raised from $81 to $94 per barrel.

More importantly, Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average.

Under this scenario, the average Brent price for the year could reach approximately $130 per barrel.

The bank's outlook reflects concerns that prolonged geopolitical tensions could continue to affect oil production and global supply.

JPMorgan Highlights Uncertainty Over the Conflict

JPMorgan analysts have also expressed concerns about the future direction of the conflict.

According to their assessment, predicting how the situation will develop remains difficult. The bank has reportedly pointed out that several economic thresholds have already been crossed, while a clear strategy for ending the conflict has yet to emerge.

This uncertainty could keep geopolitical risks elevated in the global energy market.

What Does the Fall in Crude Oil Prices Mean for India?

India imports a significant portion of its crude oil requirements, making international oil prices an important factor for the domestic economy.

A sustained decline in crude prices could help reduce the country's import bill and ease pressure on inflation, the rupee and transportation costs.

However, lower international crude prices do not automatically translate into immediate reductions in petrol and diesel prices. Domestic fuel rates also depend on exchange rates, taxes, refining costs and pricing decisions.

For now, the fall below $100 per barrel offers some relief to global markets. However, the possibility of further military escalation and disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies means that prices could remain volatile in the coming months.