WTC Final Roadmap: The Indian cricket team lost to South Africa in the Kolkata Test, after which it slipped to fourth place in the World Test Championship points table.

The Indian cricket team suffered a 30-run defeat at the hands of South Africa in Kolkata. Team India collapsed for less than 100 runs in their home ground. This defeat at the Eden Gardens Stadium has also dented the team's hopes of reaching the World Test Championship final. Now, Team India has only 10 Test matches left to be among the two teams playing in the WTC final. Consequently, they have very little 

India has played more than twice as many matches as the top-4 teams

In the current leg of the World Test Championship, Team India has played 8 Test matches so far. Currently, after losing the Kolkata Test match, India is at number four in the WTC points table. If we look at the table, the other three teams have played less than half the number of Tests as compared to India. Australia and South Africa, sitting at the number-1 position, have played 3 Tests each, while Sri Lanka, which is at the third position, has played 2 Test matches. India is ahead of the other four teams in points due to playing more matches, but when it comes to winning percentile, the other three countries are far ahead of it. Due to this, the difficulties for India are going to increase.

What is the equation now?

The future scenario for Team India is clear. According to an analysis by Hindustan Times, the team has three more series to play in addition to the current series against South Africa. They will play 10 Test matches in these series. The good news is that India will play six Tests at home, including the remaining one against South Africa. However, losing even one of these Tests could completely derail India's hopes. Therefore, Team India will now have to win all the Test matches on their home soil and draw the four Test matches played abroad. Therefore, every moment of every Test match will be crucial for Team India.

Here is India's schedule before the WTC final

• 1st Test match to be played against South Africa in Guwahati
• 2 Test matches to be played on Sri Lankan pitches
• 2 Test matches are to be played on the tour of New Zealand
• 5 Test matches to be played against Australia at home

This is how points are distributed in a WTC round

• India has to play 18 Test matches between one WTC final and the other.
• 216 points are at stake for both teams in these 18 Test matches.
• Now 10 test matches are left from these, from which Team India can get 120 points.
• If these 10 Test matches end in a draw, India's place in the final depends solely on their victory.

How many wins does India need in these 10 Tests?

Looking at previous WTC finals, New Zealand (72.2%) and India (58.8%) played in the 2019-21 final, Australia (66.67%) and India (58.8%) in the 2021-23 final, and South Africa (69.44%) and Australia (67.54%) in the 2023-25 ​​final. Based on the form of the top two teams in the points table, Australia and South Africa, the winning percentage for the teams playing in the final will be around 64-68%. This means the following for India:

• Team India needs 7 wins and 2 draws from the remaining 10 Tests.
• Even if the winning percentage is around 64-65%, Team India will still have a chance.
• Winning 8 Tests will take this winning percentage to 68.52%.
• 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses will see the team qualify with 140 points (64.81%)

What are the chances based on current form?

If we look at Team India's current form, the Indian team can do wonders. Among the top batsmen in this WTC cycle, Indian batsmen, including captain Shubman Gill, occupy the top four positions. Similarly, Mohammed Siraj (37 wickets) and Jasprit Bumrah (27 wickets) hold the top two positions in the bowling attack. Based on current form, Team India's chances could be created in the following ways:

• India can win the next Test against South Africa by making a comeback in Guwahati.
• Even in Sri Lanka, the Indian team can win both the test matches on its soil.
• It is very difficult to win in New Zealand, but India can level the series 1-1.
• Team India can win 3 matches in the 5-Test home series against Australia.
• It must not lose more than one of the remaining two Tests against Australia.
• In this way, Team India can get 64.81% percentile with 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
• If this is not the result, then Gill and his team can watch the WTC final sitting at home.

PC:NBT