Apple's remarkable growth story in India may be facing its first major slowdown. According to recent market reports, iPhone shipments in the country could decline in 2026 for the first time in several years. Industry analysts, however, believe the expected dip is being driven more by supply constraints than by weak consumer demand.

Despite the challenges, India continues to remain one of Apple's fastest-growing and most important markets.

Supply Constraints Impact iPhone Sales

Market researchers say limited product availability has become the biggest hurdle for Apple in India.

According to industry estimates, supply-related issues began affecting Apple's growth during the final quarter of 2025 and have continued into 2026. While Apple has largely maintained the official prices of older iPhone models, attractive financing options, exchange bonuses, and promotional discounts have become less generous, making iPhones relatively more expensive for buyers.

IDC estimates that overall smartphone shipments in India could decline by around 11–12% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2026, falling to nearly 32–34 million units. During the same period, iPhone shipments are expected to remain flat or decline by around 1%.

Research Firms Lower Shipment Forecasts

According to market estimates, Apple shipped approximately 14.3 million iPhones in India during 2025. However, forecasts now suggest shipments could fall by a mid-single-digit percentage this year.

Several factors are believed to be contributing to the slowdown, including:

• Limited supply of the iPhone 15, iPhone 16, and iPhone 17 series

• Possible delay in the launch of the standard iPhone 18

• Reduced promotional offers compared to previous years

Counterpoint Research estimates that iPhone shipments in India declined 3% year-on-year during the April–June quarter, while the overall smartphone market recorded an even sharper decline of around 10%.

Industry reports also indicate that supply shortages have been more noticeable for certain premium models, particularly the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max.

Festive Season Discounts May Be Smaller

Consumers hoping for big festive offers on older iPhones may have to lower their expectations.

Retailers reportedly expect:

• Smaller discounts on previous-generation iPhones

• Reduced exchange bonuses

• Fewer financing offers

• Limited stock availability for popular models

Traditionally, Apple reduces the prices of older iPhone models after launching a new series. However, reports suggest that this year's discounts could be lower than usual due to changes in the company's product launch strategy.

Demand Remains Strong Despite Challenges

Despite supply-related concerns, analysts believe demand for iPhones in India remains healthy.

Apple CEO Tim Cook recently described India as one of the company's fastest-growing markets and highlighted record revenue from the country during the June quarter.

Over the coming months, industry experts will closely monitor:

• Product availability

• Channel inventory levels

• Festive season demand

• Consumer upgrade trends

These factors will determine whether the expected decline in shipments is a temporary slowdown caused by supply issues or the beginning of a longer-term trend.

Temporary Hurdle or Long-Term Shift?

While shipment numbers may soften in the short term, analysts believe Apple's brand strength and strong consumer demand continue to position India as a key growth market. The company's performance during the upcoming festive season is expected to provide a clearer picture of how quickly supply conditions improve and whether iPhone sales regain momentum.