After suffering an 8-wicket defeat against Sri Lanka, many believe that Australia’s campaign in the T20 World Cup 2026 is effectively over. The Australian team currently appears to be on the brink of elimination. However, the reality might not be so straightforward.

Despite the setback, Australia could still qualify for the Super 8 stage, and there are two major reasons behind this possibility. Interestingly, the same Sri Lanka that dented Australia’s chances may now indirectly help revive them.

First Reason: Ireland’s Strong Edge Over Zimbabwe on Asian Pitches

At first glance, the claim that Ireland have a “100% win record” against Zimbabwe may sound confusing. After all, both teams have played 18 T20Is, winning 8 matches each, with 2 games ending without a result.

So where does the 100% figure come from?

The key lies in Asian conditions.

• Ireland and Zimbabwe have faced each other only once on Asian pitches in T20 Internationals

• In that match, Ireland defeated Zimbabwe

• This makes Ireland unbeaten against Zimbabwe on Asian surfaces

If Ireland manage to maintain this record in their upcoming clash, Zimbabwe’s chances of progressing will take a hit—and Australia will not be eliminated on February 17.

Second Reason: Sri Lanka’s Perfect ICC Record Against Zimbabwe

If Zimbabwe lose to Ireland, all eyes will shift to the Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe match on February 19.

Here’s where history strongly favours Australia:

• In ICC tournaments, Sri Lanka have never lost to Zimbabwe

• The two teams have faced each other 9 times in ICC events

• Sri Lanka have won all 9 matches

• This includes two encounters in previous T20 World Cups, both won by Sri Lanka

If Sri Lanka continue this dominance, Zimbabwe’s path to the Super 8 becomes extremely difficult—once again keeping Australia’s hopes alive.

Super 8 Qualification Scenario: Australia vs Zimbabwe

After the loss to Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe remain Australia’s biggest obstacle.

• Zimbabwe need to win just one of their next two matches to qualify for the Super 8

• Australia, on the other hand, need:

  • Zimbabwe to lose both matches (against Ireland on Feb 17 and Sri Lanka on Feb 19)

  • And then Australia must defeat Oman on February 20

If this sequence plays out, Australia could still sneak into the Super 8, despite being written off after the Sri Lanka defeat.