With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching at the end of this year, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has intensified its preparations, fine-tuning strategies that include smart seat sharing, caste calculus, and capitalizing on public sentiment around Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health.

Seat Sharing Based on Lok Sabha Formula

According to sources, the NDA partners have agreed to broadly follow the 2024 Lok Sabha elections formula for seat distribution. Discussions are currently underway from Patna to Delhi, with inputs from party high commands.

Here’s how seat sharing might look:

• JDU: 102–103 seats

• BJP: 101–102 seats

• LJP (Ram Vilas): 25–28 seats

• HAM: 6–7 seats

• Rashtriya Lok Morcha: 4–5 seats

One key change in approach is that seats lost for two consecutive terms by any NDA ally may be offered to a different partner, in hopes of improving win probability. Additionally, the final seat-sharing announcement will be delayed deliberately to avoid infighting.

Why JDU May Get More Seats Than BJP

Despite BJP contesting more Lok Sabha seats than JDU, the Assembly elections are expected to see JDU leading the seat count, albeit marginally. Historically, Nitish Kumar’s party has been a senior partner in Bihar’s state politics, and BJP is reportedly willing to concede a slight edge to maintain alliance unity.

Caste Arithmetic: A Crucial Component

Caste equations will significantly influence candidate selection and seat allocation. NDA’s strategy is to ensure balanced caste representation in each district. For example, if there are five assembly seats in a district, efforts will be made to nominate candidates from diverse caste backgrounds to avoid intra-alliance vote division.

Nitish Kumar’s Health and Political Optics

The health of CM Nitish Kumar is being closely monitored — not just medically, but politically. NDA believes that if the opposition raises concerns about Nitish’s health too aggressively, it could backfire and generate sympathy for him among voters. Behind the scenes, backup leadership options are also being kept ready, but the public narrative will continue to project Nitish as the CM face.

Watch on Rebels and Opposition Movements

In parallel, NDA is also tracking potential rebels and dissatisfaction within opposition ranks, hoping to weaken any anti-incumbency sentiment. Internal surveys and booth-level analysis are already in motion.

Past Trends Point to a Similar Pattern

Looking back:

• 2010: JDU – 141 seats | BJP – 102 seats

• 2015: JDU aligned with RJD, both contested equal seats

• 2020: JDU – 115 | BJP – 110

These numbers support the likelihood that JDU will again contest on more seats than BJP in 2025.