Iran, once regarded as a dominant force with its extensive network of proxy groups across the Middle East, has seen a significant decline in its influence and military capabilities in recent years. The regime's strategy of using proxy forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq has been pivotal in projecting power and countering adversaries, particularly Israel and the United States.
However, according to recent reports and analyses, Iran's proxy network has substantially weakened due to multiple factors:
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Weakened Proxy Forces: Iran's key allies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, have suffered leadership losses and operational setbacks, primarily due to Israeli military actions. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria also deprived Iran of its most significant state-level strategic partner.
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Diminished Support and Effectiveness: Though Iran continues to support groups like the Houthis, their activities are being limited by Israeli attacks, with the Houthis' capabilities declining — they have fired fewer missiles, and their arsenal has diminished from over 3,000 ballistic missiles to approximately 1,500.
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Regional and Global Pressures: The US and its allies have imposed stringent sanctions, especially after the nuclear talks with Iran stalled. These sanctions target Iran's oil, banking, and military sectors, crippling its economy and reducing its capacity to sustain proxy operations.
Moreover, Iran's proxies are increasingly operating outside Tehran’s direct control, often pursuing their own nationalist agendas, which sometimes diverge from Iran's strategic interests. The ongoing conflict with Israel has not resulted in a robust rearming or expansion of Iran's proxy forces; instead, their ability to threaten regional stability is waning.
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International Dynamics: Despite Iran's efforts to rearm and support proxies, global powers like the US, Israel, and more recently, China and Russia, are indirectly limiting Iran’s influence. The US has intensified efforts to target Iran’s support infrastructure in the region, and Israel’s military campaigns have crippled Iran-backed groups.
According to a 2024 report by The Times of Israel, Iran's leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, publicly denied that Iran has any proxy forces, asserting that groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis act based on their faith and nationalist sentiments, not as Iranian proxies. Nevertheless, the extensive support Iran provided over the decades has left a lasting impact on regional geopolitics, even though its direct influence has declined sharply in recent years.
