Will Pakistan Become the Next Afghanistan?

Understanding the TTP and Why Islamabad is Determined to Eliminate It

By: IANS | Edited By: Sankalpt | Updated at: 27 Dec 2024, 06:58 AM (IST)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has emerged as one of the most significant threats to Pakistan's stability. Islamabad’s recent airstrikes, such as the one on December 24, highlight the urgency with which the state views the challenge posed by the TTP.

What is TTP?

TTP, or the Pakistan Taliban, was formed in 2007 by uniting various militant factions operating across Pakistan. Its official inception was announced under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud (now deceased) in December 2007.

The group was created in response to Pakistani military operations targeting Al-Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). TTP’s current leader, Noor Wali Mehsud, has publicly pledged allegiance to the Afghan Taliban. While both groups share ideological similarities, they operate independently with distinct command structures.

Goals of the TTP

TTP aims to overthrow Pakistan’s government through violent campaigns and establish a hardline regime based on its interpretation of Islamic law. Reports suggest that the group operates primarily along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, using the region as a recruitment hub.

TTP is responsible for some of Pakistan's deadliest attacks, including the 2012 shooting of Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai for advocating girls' education.

TTP’s Strength

Estimates of TTP's strength vary. According to a recent briefing by Pakistani diplomat Usman Iqbal Jadoon to the UN Security Council, TTP has around 6,000 fighters and poses a direct and daily threat to Pakistan’s security, leveraging safe havens near the Afghan border.

TTP's Resurgence Post-2021

Following the Afghan Taliban's takeover of Kabul in August 2021, TTP has intensified its operations. Relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have deteriorated, primarily over TTP’s activities.

Despite mediation efforts by the Afghan Taliban, including a temporary ceasefire in 2021, talks between Pakistan and TTP collapsed. Since then, TTP has escalated attacks on Pakistani security forces.

Recent Developments

Last week, TTP claimed responsibility for killing at least 16 Pakistani soldiers in South Waziristan. Such attacks underscore its growing threat, particularly in Pakistan's northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Balochistan provinces, both bordering Afghanistan.

On December 24, Pakistan launched an airstrike in Afghanistan's Paktika province, reportedly killing 46 people, including women and children. The Taliban government in Kabul strongly condemned the strike, warning Islamabad against violating Afghanistan's sovereignty.

Afghan Taliban’s Reaction

Afghanistan's acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, criticized Pakistan’s actions, urging Islamabad to adopt a balanced policy. He warned of the consequences of aggression and called on the Pakistani public to hold their leaders accountable.

Future Implications

As TTP continues to grow in strength, Pakistan faces mounting internal and external challenges. Its struggle with TTP raises questions about its ability to maintain control and stability, drawing parallels to Afghanistan’s recent history. Whether Islamabad can address these threats effectively without further destabilizing its region remains uncertain.