Bihar's political landscape shifted after the Lok Sabha elections. Can the BJP retain its top position in the by-elections?

BJP is to be tested in the Bihar assembly by-elections. BJP will have to work hard in the by-elections to maintain its political position in the state, while RJD will have to win the seats of its quota at any cost. In such a situation, the biggest question is whether BJP will be able to maintain its number 1 status in the by-elections?

The number game in Bihar changed after the Lok Sabha elections, will BJP be able to maintain its number 1 status in the by-elections?

After the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, now all eyes are on the assembly by-elections. The 2024 election results have changed the number game of Bihar Assembly. Due to four MLAs of the state becoming MPs and the resignation of one MLA, BJP has become the largest party in the assembly. The number of RJD MLAs remained at 77, while the number of BJP MLAs is 78. Due to the resignation of Bima Bharti, JDU has 44 MLAs left. BJP is to be tested in the Bihar assembly by-elections. BJP will have to work hard in the by-elections to retain its political position in the state, while RJD will have to win the seats of its quota at any cost?

Out of the five assembly seats in Bihar where by-elections are to be held, two seats have fallen vacant due to the resignation of RJD MLA. Apart from this, one seat each of JDU-ML-Hindustan Awam Morcha quota has fallen vacant. By-elections are to be held for the assembly on Gaya, Jehanabad, Ara, Buxar and Rupauli seats. Out of these, the MLAs of four seats have now become Lok Sabha MPs, due to which they have resigned. JDU's Rupauli seat MLA Bima Bharti had resigned from the membership of the assembly and contested the election from Purnia seat on RJD ticket.

By-election on Rupauli seat on July 10

The information about the four assembly seats that have become vacant due to MLAs becoming MPs has been sent to the Election Commission, now the Election Commission will decide the date of the by-election. However, the by-election on Rupauli seat vacant due to Bima Bharti's resignation is on July 10. It is believed that RJD can bet on Bima Bharti from Rupauli seat, JDU will now field a new face. Similarly, there is going to be a political battle on the remaining four seats, in which BJP has also prepared to enter with full force.

Who is how strong in the assembly?
If we look at the arithmetic of the assembly, at present NDA, in which BJP has 78 MLAs, JDU has 44, HAM 3 and one independent. In this way, the total number of MLAs with NDA is 126. At the same time, RJD, which is part of India Alliance, has 77 MLAs, Left parties have 15 and Congress has 19 MLAs. In this way, India Alliance has the support of 111 MLAs, but three MLAs have rebelled and are standing in the NDA camp. In this way, at present India Alliance has the support of 108 MLAs.

Checkmate to become the number one party

After the assembly election results in Bihar in 2020, RJD emerged as the largest party with 75 seats, but could not reach the throne of power. BJP became the second largest party with 74 MLAs. While being with NDA in Bihar, BJP emerged as a bigger party than JDU for the first time. Since then, BJP is trying to become the largest party in the state, for which it had joined three MLAs of Mukesh Sahni's party VIP. Due to this, BJP had 78 MLAs, but on the other hand, RJD took four out of five MLAs won from Owaisi's party AIMIM. Due to this, the number of RJD MLAs reached 79. In this way RJD remained the number one party.

The number game changed after the Lok Sabha elections

After the Lok Sabha elections, the number game of Bihar Assembly has changed. BJP is number one in the assembly with 78 MLAs, while RJD is at number two with 77 MLAs. There are by-elections on five seats in the state, which will decide who really rules in numbers. BJP is trying to retain its number one position at all costs, while RJD is trying to regain its position.

It is believed that on the basis of seat sharing in the by-election, Jitan Ram Manjhi's party can field its candidate on the Imamganj seat. Similarly, JDU can try its luck from Rupauli seat. Two seats of RJD quota and one seat of CPI(ML) are becoming vacant. In 2020, BJP contested on Ramgarh and Tarir seats.

While JDU fielded its candidate on Belagnj seat. In such a situation, this could be the seat sharing formula in NDA in the by-election. BJP can field its candidates on Ramgarh and Tarari seats, while JDU can try its luck on Belagnj seat.

Out of the five seats in Bihar where by-elections are being held, BJP can contest two seats, JDU two and Manjhi's party on one seat from the NDA camp. On the other hand, RJD can contest on three seats, CPI(ML) on one seat and Congress on one seat from the India alliance. To remain the number one party in the assembly, RJD will have to win the seats of its quota, while BJP will have to try to retain its status by winning the seats of its quota. Not only this, assembly elections are also to be held next year in 2025. In such a situation, the by-election is no less than a litmus test for both the alliances to gain an edge before the main elections.