Mathematics of infection : Corona virus is more aggressive then its end is also near


After wreaking havoc in India, the Delta variant has engulfed the US and Europe as well as South Asian countries. Experts say that the more aggressive the virus, the sooner it will end.

Professor Vijaynath Mishra of the Department of Neurology, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, says that the R-not of the virus is still between one and two in India. They explain that a lower R-notch means fewer people will be infected and that the end of the virus is nearer.

Delta strain's R-notch was between 5 and 8, that of the measles virus was 18

According to BHU immunologist Professor Dnyaneshwar Choubey, the R-notch of the virus was 1.24 during the first wave of the corona. The R-notch of the delta in the second wave is 1.7 to 1.8.

Why and how did the pandemic end?

Professor Mishra explains that if a person dies due to corona, then the virus will not be able to spread. Its effect will be seen in the form of a falling graph of R-Not. As it becomes lethal, its proliferation capacity will automatically decrease.

Professor Choubey says that the spread of corona is slow compared to other epidemics. The number of people who beat it is more. That is, the corona is less powerful than other epidemics. People are giving it up easily.

What is R-Not?

The R-notch virus has a normal reproduction rate. Through this, the number of people getting infected from the infected person is ascertained. The speed and severity of the infection are detected by R-Notch. The R-Notch was first used by scientists in 1952 to get to the bottom of malaria.

Coronavirus is so weak

According to Britain's Imperial College London, the R-not of the measles epidemic was 18 while that of mumps was 12. The R-notch of the virus found in Wuhan, China was between 2.4 and 2.6. The form of the virus caused the first wave of epidemics in European countries. His R-Notch was 3. The R-notch of the alphavirus is 4 to 5, the delta is 5 to 8. It is clear that the R-notch of Corona is much less than that of measles and mumps.