Angela Merkel does not have to flee into world politics – the world comes to her. As if Obama had surrendered the scale.
But their popularity is not colored by the CDU. One state after another goes to red-green.
If Merkel were to become Chancellor again, she would have to rule a red-green republic. Nevertheless, the Union is building on it.
It began with the “Economist”. The house sheet of the globalized elite, headquartered in London, was so shocked by the Brexit that in the summer it discovered the German chancellor as the last hope of a growing continent. “Looking to mutti,” wrote the British ironically.
But after the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA, jubilantism has been passed on to the opinion leaders on both sides of the Atlantic: Merkel is now supposed to save not only Europe, but also the whole free world: the “New Defender of the Liberal West” York Times “Merkel right after the US election. Even politicians, known for their cold-bloodedness, stated dryly under the heading “Angela Merkel’s new job: Global Savior”: “The upswing gives the victory trumps only to the radical right movement of America, the global cement industry (if it really builds the wall) And German Chancellor Angela Merkel. ”
The international expectations in Merkel were never higher than today. At the same time, its base crumbles at home. The CDU failed not only to find a candidate for the office of the Federal President, but is hardly able to campaign in more and more national associations. The state of the party is so desolate that it could endanger Merkel’s re-election.
In the late years of his Chancellery, Helmut Kohl was told that he was fleeing into world politics. Merkel does not have to do that. World politics come to her. Not only in the form of the overwhelming expectations, but last week also in person by Barack Obama. The outgoing president, who had spoken of the advantages of the American term of office during his last visit to Germany a few months ago, now called to the Chancellor’s fourth legislature: “If I were a German, I would support it.”
Merkel responded coolly, pointing out that she would let her know in due time whether she would come back. This Sunday it is probably time. In the evening, Merkel is finally to announce her candidacy after a CDU condemnation.
The Obama visit was presented by German media as a relay from the old leader of the free world to the new leader. The ZDF reported from the press conference of the two politicians on Twitter: “Merkel: Germany has received much help from the USA. Now Germany is in a position to maintain the order of the world. ”
This was an impermissible shortening and aggravation of a much more cautious statement by Merkel, but she even alerted to Christian Democrats: “Please what? And above all: how? “Commented Martin Jäger, formerly German ambassador in Afghanistan, then spokesman for Wolfgang Schäuble and now state secretary in Baden-Württemberg, spontaneously.
In fact, the idea, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic, could fill the role of the benevolent hegemony, absurd on closer inspection. A country without a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, without nuclear weapons, and with only one-fifteenth of the US military spending, remains, if at all, a mediocrity.
A small diplomatic masterpiece of the Chancellor’s office
This is too much of the population too much: the Germans would like to stay out of the world’s tragedies even in the seventh decade after the lost world war. Merkel came long to meet this need in her term of office.
The “Merkel doctrine” did not rely on German foreign operations, but on the “upgrading” of regional powers as a stability anchor. This included arms sales: Germany could remain the world’s pacifist export champion. Recently, however, Merkel also risked more risky foreign policy, for example with the arming of the Kurdish Peschmerga, which actually succeeded in preventing an imminent extinction by the IS of the Jesuit minority in Iraq.
But if Merkel is international, then as a rule not as a German but as a European. Also this was to be experienced this week. The heads of government of Great Britain, Spain, Italy and France agreed with Obama on extending the sanctions against Russia. The Europeans continue to have committed to a common line against Putin is a small diplomatic masterpiece of the Chancellor’s Office.
She just did not succeed, as Merkel made an authoritative announcement, but behind the scenes painstaking various interests to a common attitude. German, on the other hand, usually ends up unhappy. Merkel recently experienced this in the refugee crisis when her attempt to force a distribution of migrants across the EU failed.
Merkel bonus does not transfer to the party
Leading Christian Democrats hope that Merkel will not succumb to the siren chants of her admirers in the international media and will once again be committed. On the home front, the worries are growing. The Chancellor’s popularity is no longer at her record high (71 per cent), but still far higher than any other chancellor ever. The problem is only: This Merkel bonus does not seem to be transferred to the CDU anymore.
According to the institute, the Union is estimated to be between 30 and 35 per cent, but a strong CSU result in Bavaria is always accepted. On the electorate, the situation was different: 18 per cent in Berlin, 19 per cent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, before defeats in the former Hochburgen Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg.
And improvement is not in sight. In February, the Union must elect an SPD federal president; In March she is worried about the Saarland. There, Annegret governs Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU). Her candidacy as Federal President was rejected with the argument that only the popular minister-president had a chance to defend the smallest federal state against red-red-green.
In May, Schleswig-Holstein then elects Schleswig-Holstein, where the CDU elected the third chairman in a legislature on this Saturday. The predecessor threw the rifle into the grain, after only nine per cent of the country children had indicated in a survey that they knew him at all.
A week later, the decision in NRW is terminated: Although the largest state is run by an equally successful and lust-free red-green government, the active opposition leader Armin Laschet so far does not succeed in passing polls to the SPD by Hannelore Kraft.
Merkel would have to govern a red-green republic
When Merkel once again wins the Bundestag election, it threatens to govern a largely red-green republic. “These are no longer the cyclical fluctuations that have always existed,” says a leading CDU politician who does not want to be named: “We are witnessing a tectonic shift in the political geography of the republic.”
A copy of a graphic that recently published the “Handelsblatt” is circulating among board members. It shows the loss of power. 94 Minister of State represented the Union ten years ago. Today it is still 48, and the lost Senatorposten in Berlin are not yet deducted. Entire fields of policy are so broken.
For years, the powerlessness of Merkel stabilized the lack of personnel. As there were less and less CDU minister presidents, no potential rivals developed. But now the exhaustion has gone so far that it is also a problem for Merkel. Her long-awaited search for a respectable CDU candidate for the office of the Federal President shows this.
The narrowing of the human as well as content offer is now not only critically discussed by conservatives. Peter Kurth, the former financial manager of Berlin, recalled Helmut Kohl’s personal policy at the beginning of the week: “Kohl almost always had a lot of media in the opposite direction. But he has understood how to open up politics and the Union to strong people who always have their own opinions – also against the chairman. ”
Now comes also competition from the right
Especially bitter: what is lost in the one place for the CDU is not gained on the other. In spite of the modernization course under Angela Merkel, the CDU is as foreign as ever before. The 20 largest cities in Germany are the only city in the three cities. In 2016 there were still ten Lord Mayors.
This erosion took place, although the CDU had no competition from the right. But with the refugee crisis the alternative for Germany (AfD) has become established in the party system. It now chases the CDUs the decisive percentages in elections. Once the right-wing populists are anchored in the area, many CDU direct candidates face unfavor. After all, in fierce electoral circles it is already enough to lose a few percent in order to lose the mandate to the SPD challenger.
It is unclear what plan the party’s party is pursuing against the slow erosion of the power base. On this Sunday, the leadership will decide a leading motion for the Federal Party Congress, which reads in parts as if one were to take up the fight against the AfD.
Mosques, in which hate preachers work, are to be closed. The limit opening of the year 2015, described as an “exceptional situation”, must not be repeated. Even Merkel’s long-deplored closure of the Balkan route is praised in the draft which was submitted to this newspaper. Tax relief is intended to benefit small people in particular and to foster families in the purchase of residential property.
However, other signals can be observed during the preparations for the Bundestag election campaign. It is planned to promote Merkel in particular, and to encourage refugees from the left center to cross the CDU for the first time. When selecting the advertising agency, three different concepts were available in a final round. Winner was the agency Jung von Matt, who has never taken a political campaign. With a concept that puts the Federal Chancellor at the center of attention.